Two records. Clearly separated.
Live accuracy counts locked forecasts saved before a fight. Historical testing checks the frozen model against past events.
Live prediction record
Refreshes every 30 seconds during your visit.
Loading the live record…
See locked predictionsFans vs. Model
Fan predictions are simple fighter picks, not confidence estimates. The crowd percentage is the share of fans who picked each fighter. Once the card starts, those votes stay locked.
Loading the fan consensus record…
Historical benchmark
Loading historical results…
Lower Brier score and log loss mean better probability estimates. Accuracy counts the higher-probability fighter as the pick. A 50/50 prediction receives half credit in this benchmark; it is excluded from the live pick counter.
How Predictor 0.1 was tested
Predictor 0.1 was trained using earlier UFC fights and evaluated on 1,516 later fights that were not used to fit the final model. It reached 63.2% accuracy with a 0.228 Brier score, compared with 54.7% / 0.246 for the Elo baseline.
The live MMA Scouts record begins with the original CageMetrix launch history preserved. Historical testing is retrospective and is not presented as previously published predictions.